can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL?

Posted by: garyW

can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 08:54 AM

Record profit, record sales, leads the industry in all categories . and their stock gets hammered -50 points and Wall Street calls them a failing company because analysts constantly say they expect more. Media tech writers say Apple should give them a "cheap" no-frills phone, a new form factor, an entirely new UI Apple doesn't, then they write that Apple is failing and the stock tumbles.

Yes, growth declined while everyone waited for new hardware in the Fall, and sales reached new highs. So, in the financial mind-set it's not about profit?

The world is f'd up.








Posted by: steveg

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 09:00 AM

It's Obama's fault.
Posted by: yoyo52

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 09:16 AM

Stocks are a leading indicator (and here I never took an econ course in my life!!). So the market now is predicting the future, not celebrating the past. And the future seems to be driven by Apple's cutting orders for iPhone 5 screens, and so on.
Posted by: six_of_one

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 09:19 AM

It's always been this way with Apple and Wall Street -- they're happy to ride the Apple wave as long as it makes them money, start expecting the wave to never break and when it shows signs of cresting, they kill the stock.

I still remember the fall of '99 when Apple posted a loss for the quarter. The Wall Street brainiacs called it an Apple-specific trend and killed the stock by 50% the following day. And then proceeded to lose their shirts when the rest of the tech sector crashed too ...
Posted by: DLC

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 09:58 AM

I think you pretty much nailed it.. every time AAPL doesn't meet expectations EXACTLY or better they get punished. Cramer came out with an analysis that showed they were damm close... surely not 7% (stock drop) below estmates !! BUT it did allow me to buy at an Excellent price. grin

In case you guys don't know- the Market is rigged - even Cramer admits it (back in 2006) !!
(its on YouTube...) so when they get burned - do NOT feel sorry for those greedy Bastids !! mad

2 emotions move Wall St... fear and greed - that's it !! (from OTA class)
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 10:50 AM

Originally Posted By: DLC

2 emotions move Wall St... fear and greed - that's it !! (from OTA class)


Yeah, I get it that Wall Street bets on futures and a whole lot of BILLIONS were made on January 18 when APPL hit 500, a price that was bet heavily in futures back in the summer to hit 500 on that date. The WSJ ran bogus stories a week ago (then immediately pulled them) to insure that the low would occur like magic.

But the stock is 250 pts below its high and a whole lot of investors are also losing billions.

Like I said earlier, it's all f'd up. And Wall Street and their paid analysts are taking Apple for a ride like no other company that I know of.

Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 11:05 AM

Originally Posted By: yoyo52
And the future seems to be driven by Apple's cutting orders for iPhone 5 screens, and so on.


Yes, Apple cuts screens orders because they introduced a new product, the iPad Mini, which intentionally cannibalized the iPod Touch from their product line. iPhone 5 orders were at an all-time record high last quarter.

Mac orders were down because they didn't ship the new iMacs until mid December. Wall Street wants Apple to bring new products to market and still punishes them, and this happens when Apple follows the exact same market strategy that Steve Jobs succeeded in taking incremental steps to PERFECT a product as they're doing now with iPhone, iPad and iMac lines.

Wall Street plays this bullsh!t game to ignore reality that product advancements do not always require a new form factor --- a form factor that Apple innovated (and did not steal). I feel APPL is being manipulated from outside influences on a scale that may prove to be the next huge Wall Street scandal.


Posted by: Nana

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 11:10 AM

Quote:
Mac orders were down because they didn't ship the new iMacs until mid December.

According to Apple's online store, shipping is still 2-4 weeks! mad The one I want it's 3-4 weeks! mad
Posted by: MacGizmo

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 01:56 PM

I saw this hilarious comment, though foul-mouthed as all get-go, on another site. I'm sure you can figure out what the # words are:

Click to reveal..
Quote:
Tim Cook's summary: A lot of people bought our f#cking sht. We made a metric f#ck ton of money selling our sht. We're f#cking rolling in f#cking money.

And yet you skank-farming motherf#ckers aren't happy. So f#ck all of you, and we're going to sell even more f#cking sht this quarter just to make all you doubting motherf#ckers look bad yet again.

Pass me my solid gold f#cking Skittles, Peter.
Posted by: MacBozo

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/24/13 05:17 PM

I received one AAPL share years ago as a Christmas gift. It was worth about $25 at the time. It has since split - giving me 2 shares. I haven't sold them, so I have neither gained nor lost.
Posted by: NucleusG4

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 01/25/13 03:59 AM

Let Wall Street short the stock... it'll bounce back harder than ever. Especially if they release the TV.
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 02:01 PM

18 months later .....

From the 700 high and then the 200 pt death spiral, it's been a steady rise nearing 650 (pre-split). Dow and Nasdaq are at record highs .... and AAPL had split 7 to 1. Apple bought back a ton of their stock, but I believe the split is in reaction to the new tech bubble and AAPL in the low $90s is an emotional buy. Oh, yeah. That works for me on so many levels.

I remember having arguments with Carp (hello! where the heck are you?) where he stood firm on his belief that a stock split doubled the value of the share. I took the position that it holds the same value, it's a ploy used to lure larger numbers of investors.

So AAPL splits 7 to 1. I decided this was the time to buy, not only because shares were more affordable but also because I expect Sept/Oct to showcase new hardware and a whole new market of "wearables" ( a watch or bracelet, who knows. Surprise me Apple!). Whatever new product they release it will define a market like they've done with smartphones and tablets. It'll be big.

So it is totally emotional to focus on just one corporation for investment, and when I talked with a broker at Scottrade (I like them and there's a local office) he tells me that Apple stock is the biggest buy requests and the split lit a huge fire under it.

Back to Carp's point of view. I'm conceding part of my disagreement to him as a win. A split stock, specially a 7 to 1 split stock, is worth more. I mean this not a snapshot at any given moment, but in the "emotional" effect. The stock sells in greater volumes. The growth of the stock has a lot room still to attract lots of buyers, in that AAPL at 100 or 110 still seems like a good way to get on board. As a result of the split this makes it more valuable. I wonder how long I'll keep the 7 way split as a reference, but I suspect I'll ditch that mindset quickly. Specially when new product comes out. New phones, new OS and the expected wearable.

Of course there's also talk on CNBC today that the market is in a bubble and it could all crash at any moment laugh

Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 02:10 PM

Originally Posted By: MacBozo
I received one AAPL share years ago as a Christmas gift. It was worth about $25 at the time. It has since split - giving me 2 shares. I haven't sold them, so I have neither gained nor lost.

Now you own 14 shares. Feels better, right? grin

2 shares on 1/25/13 was worth about $876. Post-split, your 14 shares today about $1280, looking good for that $25 investment. Thanks Apple!

Posted by: NucleusG4

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:01 PM

So you think this is a prime time to buy?
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:15 PM

Originally Posted By: NucleusG4
So you think this is a prime time to buy?


Depends if it feels right to you. laugh

I just took advantage of the local housing bubble and got a great price selling my home, way better than I thought. Overnight became debt-free and wanted to park some money in AAPL and, damn Apple did this split and for me it all fell in place. If shares were still $650 I most likely would not have bought and would have done something safe and dull like fund Roth-IRAs. As emotionally tragic and corny as it sounds, I believe in Apple and there's a familiar comfort taking a risk with an AAPL stock buy. Yes, the time feels right to me. Perhaps this thread will need to resurface 18 months from now.

Posted by: six_of_one

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:35 PM

As understand stock splits, when they do split, they retain the pre-spilt value. So you're not making or losing anything by the mere fact of the split. However, now that you have more individual shares, the more you will make / lose moving forward. (ex: a 2 for 1 split means that if the stock goes up 1 point, you'd make $2 on two shares instead of the $1 for the one share pre-split).

So while the split itself doesn't change the value of the shares, since you now have more of them, their earning potential as the stock rises is greater as a result ... as is the loss potential if it goes down =)
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:46 PM

A $1 rise in the stock today would have been a $7 rise pre-split.

With the same "pre-split comparison", what seems more likely to happen, AAPL rising next week $91.7 to $100 (+8.3) or pre-split $641.9 to $700 (+ 58.1)?

This is why I think the split is a good thing. There's so much more stock being traded because the buy-in is lower and you're in the game ... owning more stocks and the possibility of quicker gains is why I chose to buy at this time.
Posted by: yoyo52

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:51 PM

The split makes the price of each stock cheaper, but the aggregate value remains the same. The cheaper price is significant on a percentage basis. So if a stock is valued at 100 bucks and it goes up 1 buck on a given day, it increases value by 1%. But if the stock splits in two, so each costs 50 bucks, then a 1 dollar rise increases the value by 2%. It's quite likely that the split stock would not rise by the same amount as the unsplit stock, to be sure.

Apple as a corporation is undergoing the same problem in regards to increasing its gains in receipts. I mean, when a company is worth as much as Apple is, any new product will raise its profit, but as a percentage, it won't be nearly as much as it was, say when the iPhone was introduced. It's hell to be successful!
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 03:54 PM

Originally Posted By: yoyo52
it won't be nearly as much as it was, say when the iPhone was introduced. It's hell to be successful!


and iPhone 6 is coming in Sept too.
Maybe in new form factors.
And a new OS
grin

iPod was initially snubbed by the financial world. iPad was lukewarm. I think Tim & Jony are going to introduce another market changing product. Of course stock will dive when they do, so maybe waiting to buy is a good decision <wink>

The days of Flower Power iMacs, Hockey Puck Mice and the Cube are long gone. Apple owns tech and all other hardware companies follow. Except for new monitors. What's up with that?
Posted by: yoyo52

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 04:15 PM

Apple television. Not AppleTV, a real TV. Cheap at only $3,000 for 27" wink
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 04:30 PM

I'm just asking for a new/better 30" Cinema Display to update their last version .... has it been five or six years? A 30" with the same design as their thunderbolt displays? A retina 27" iMac will do even better. But neither are even being rumored.

Samsung owns the high end TV market. How can Apple enter so late in the game?
(a-ha! a wearable 50" TV display!)
Posted by: yoyo52

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/19/14 05:19 PM

Originally Posted By: garyW
Samsung owns the high end TV market. How can Apple enter so late in the game?
(a-ha! a wearable 50" TV display!)


Dude, where's your pipeline to Sir Johnny?
Posted by: lanovami

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/20/14 02:32 PM

Reading all of the above: Then what is the advantage of splitting stocks for a corporation or (perish thought) investors?
Posted by: garyW

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/20/14 03:41 PM

I think the answer is a huge uptick of investors. The split creates the incentive to buy in at the lower price.

Today I also saw AAPL being totally played by the big boys. Seconds before close of trading today, 30 million shares were dumped in a single trade and immediately purchased when the stock dropped -.5. That was +.50 a share x 30M = $15M won in a split second. 30M shares has a worth about $2.7B, yikes.

Posted by: MacGizmo

Re: can anyone explain what's happening to AAPL? - 06/20/14 09:01 PM

The reason a company splits the stock is simply to promote the stock to individual investors at the lower price. They would rather have 1,000 people own one share each vs. one investment group buy 1,000 shares. It means nothing at that low of a volume, but when you're talking about millions of shares, you don't want one guy or investment group owning that many shares (think carl icahn).

By splitting the stock, it lowers the price and gets lots more people to buy the stock, which means those large investors control a smaller percentage of the stock - thus giving them less "power."