In studying the 538 site/blog I was wondering about the accuracy of their past predictions which led me to Wiki, which led me to Alan Lichtman.
From the 538 Wiki..
For many years, a group of political scientists, mathematicians and scholars have argued that a handful of factors determine of presidential elections, irrespective of the campaigns.
Most famous among those thinkers is Allan Lichtman, whose "13 Keys to the White House" model (which looks at factors such as incumbency, the outcome of the previous midterm election and per capita economic growth) has forecast the popular-vote winner in each of the last seven elections.
And from an article this month from Lichtman...
In two previous columns, in March 2010 and June 2011, I informed Gazette readers of my early prediction for the presidential election based on the Keys to the White House. Nothing has changed in this final prediction. The Keys still point strongly to an Obama victory next month.
The Keys to the White House are a historically based system for predicting the results of American presidential elections. I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Volodia Keilis-Borok, a world-renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models.
Retrospectively, the Keys accurately account for the results of every presidential election from 1860 through 1980. Prospectively, the keys have predicted well ahead of time the popular-vote winners of all seven presidential elections from 1984 through 2008. The Keys first predicted a Democratic victory for 2008 in an article in the journal Foresight in February 2006.
I predict that in the early evening of Nov 6 we will see all evidence that PA and Ohio go for Obama and that should seal the dealů but I do not believe anything will go smoothly and there will be controversy of vote tallys being altered. I predict a Perfect Sh!tstorm caused by corporate money and corrupt GOP state legislatures and GOP election officials. I predict many GOP state election officers will not certify Obama a win even if the numbers show a decisive win.
In an honest world I predict Obama will win easily. In the partisan real world I predict we will not know who wins on the morning of Nov. 7.
Hearing on NPR that 25,000 ballots for Palm Beach County are unreadable by the machine.. and that they are hand writing some little code or header/some-such on these ballots.. I can already predict Florida to have voting issues. In addition... I know the printers for some of the ballots for other counties (not Palm Beach) and have already received word from one of them that according to what they know... there most definitely will be questions on Election Day and in the days thereafter. Groaaaannnn.... Can Florida EVER get it right?
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