Flash on iPhone will happen when Adobe gets it working right: fast, power-efficient and stable (you know... like they've never yet achieved with the Mac version to bein with).
I do believe that Adobe will eventually get something working. And then there's two ways we could see it:
1. Apple agrees to bundle it with Safari on iPhone. Battery life plummets, usability plummets (since Flash navigation often uses things like rollovers that have no analogy on a touchscreen), we all get bombarded with ads that take even longer to load, and the can of worms is opened to people wanting all kinds of OTHER plugins on mobile Safari. This is the "real Flash support" we all hope for (or do we?) and I think it's very unlikely.
2. Adobe licenses it to app-makers, who can then build Flash into their Xcode executables. We then have one more way to make games, and a way for sites like Hulu to make player apps that don't need Safari (or Apple's involvement) at all. Adobe could release this to the public as a dedicated iPhone authoring package (like how Unity works for 3D), or they could just license it to individual companies as needed. THIS is something I'd like to see!
And for sites like Hulu, there's a third option: offer a NON-Flash format to iPhone users. The way YouTube works. (Only complicated, no doubt, by the content owners' desire for piracy protection.)
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