While most polls show Obama leading in the race for the White House by margins of 5 to 12 points, I am not discounting the Bradley effect in this election. <br>What do you think?<br>Can it happen again?<br>(I'm particularly worried about those 'swing states'; e.g.: Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.)<br><br>[color:blue][/b]Hodie mihi. Cras tibi.</font color=blue>[/b]
We'd all be foolish to take anything for granted. Even though I've gotten behind Obama for the most part, I'm still looking over my shoulder at some of the issues I sited much earlier as potential deal-breakers. So yeah, over-confidence in possibly inaccurate polls is another bug-a-boo.<br><br>
What caught my interest in the linked article is the question: [color:blue] "Are significant numbers of white voters lying to pollsters about their intention to vote for Obama?"</font color=blue><br><br>Even though no one in the Geezer & Gidget camp has said anything yet alluding to this, I think many of them are banking on it. <br><br><br><br>[color:blue][/b]Hodie mihi. Cras tibi.</font color=blue>[/b]
Then again, you have the opposite scenario where I live. Ridiculously heavy Republican support (Romney won the primary in my precinct overwhelmingly) where declaring yourself an Obama supporter garners a "you've got to be kidding" response. I can see many people claiming to support McCain, yet voting Obama in the privacy of the booth.<br><br>
<blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr><p>Then again, you have the opposite scenario where I live<p><hr></blockquote><p>Indeed, that is strange...<br>In my neighborhood, folks are afraid to put up Obama yard signs because of redneck vandalism.<br><br>[color:blue][/b]Hodie mihi. Cras tibi.</font color=blue>[/b]
It could have some effect but I suspect none... that was 30 years ago and was the Bradley effect due to Bradley being black, or Reagan being so popular ? or maybe both... I think the country has moved forward on the race issue... oh it's not past it, but it's much further down the road. We now have black representatives on the SC, in the President's cabinet, and more in Congress.... that wasn't true in the early 80s.<br><br>David (OFI)
One thing "Polls" are just polls they only give a small snap shot of what 2,000 people or so not counting the built in 5% more or less . Take polls with a grain of salt . CNN says that their polls participants are mostly democrats so their polls are always screwed towards Obama.<br><br>The "polls of all polls" , which is a single poll comprised or averaging all the other polls combined - or call it The Mother of a Inaccurate Poll<br><br>Here the key to me;<br>[color:blue]"Has race been talked about in this election? Absolutely," Hopkins said. "But is the election being fought on racialized issues? No."</font color=blue> - This election is based on the economy which Obama has the best grip on - Bradley election was based on racialized issues <br><br><br>
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