<blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr><p>Consumer confidence numbers released Tuesday were down sharply. The Conference Board reports that Americans expectations for the future fell to a 35-year low. People in three cities across the country explain how personal the economic downturn is for them.<p><hr></blockquote><p><a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89064859&ft=1&f=1001">All Things Considered (audio)</a><br><br>consumer confidence is way, way down. home prices are falling. the outlook on our future is lower than it's been for nearly my whole life. that's pretty incredible stuff. why does it seem like such ho-hum news? is it because the political stuff is just much more entertaining? que pasa?<br><br>
It is probably a function of how poor economics reporting is and how out of touch it is with regular people. An X% rise in productivity and 400 more points on the Dow don't matter to someone whose company just cut vacation time and laid off the second shift to increase its stock value. If everyone in the nation making less than median income got a 5% raise tomorrow, the stock market would likely suffer, but the economy would improve for half the nation. But given the losses on the market, it would be reported as a bad day for the United States economy.<br><br><br>-- Cee Bee Double-U
Hot prostitute vs people aren't very confident? Which one gets the ratings? or is that a redundant question?<br><br>I used to think it was terrible that life was unfair. Then I thought what if life were fair and all of the terrible things that happen came because we really deserved them? Now I take comfort in the general unfairness and hostility of the universe.
_________________________ I used to think it was terrible that life was unfair. Then I thought what if life were fair and all of the terrible things that happen came because we really deserved them? Now I take comfort in the general unfairness and hostility of the universe.
Man 41% are going to pay off bills.... only 21% are going to spend it on something new.... 32% save or invest.<br><br>And the 21% will probably buy a big ticket item from China!!!<br><br>whoa... that helps the AMERICAN jobs and OUR economy a lot.<br><br>David (OFI)
<br>[color:blue]If everyone in the nation making less than median income got a 5% raise tomorrow, the stock market would likely suffer, but the economy would improve for half the nation.</font color=blue><br><br>And right there is where our current stock market controlled form of capitalism is truly evil.<br>Those who can invest, will demand that those, who can't lose their jobs to far away lands and cheaper wages. <br>Companies, which in this way manage to keep costs down, are receiving millions from happy investments, who don't seem to care that they are in fact forcing their own neighbors into poverty. <br>The difference between rich and poor grows by leaps and bounds. On the national as well as international level.<br><br>Time for a massive paradigm shift.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
"Humor ist, wenn man trotzdem lacht" (Humour means laughing despite of it)
Whether consumer confidence is down or not I can't tell.<br><br>But, I strongly believe consumer confidence follows what the press is spouting.<br><br>Stock market goes down because of speculators' panic, the press reports we're in a bear market. Stock market goes up because of speculators, the press reports we're in a bull market.<br><br>The Stock Market is a poor device or report card to judge the state of an economy. Instead, I suggest looking at the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).<br><br>GDP in the last two years: (In Billions of $)<br>2006 <br>I 12,964.6 <br>II 13,155.0 <br>III 13,266.9 <br>IV 13,392.3 <br>2007 <br>I 13,551.9 <br>II 13,768.8 <br>III 13,970.5 <br>IV 14,084.1<br><br>Personal consumption expenditures during the last two years: (In Billions of $)<br>2006<br>I 9,034.7<br>II 9,183.9<br>III 9,305.7<br>IV 9,373.7<br>2007<br>I 9,540.5<br>II 9,674.0<br>III 9,785.7<br>IV 9,930.7<br><br>It's a little too early to see any reports for the first quarter of 2008.<br>Never-the-less, I think the trend is plainly obvious, climbing higher and higher.<br><br>You can even break these numbers down to per month if you desire at<br>http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Tabl...07&Freq=Qtr<br><br>If you checked the DJIA over two years, you'd find:<br><br><br><br>Compared to what we, the American people, are spending, the DJIA is riding a roller coaster! <br><br> <br> <br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
Question:<br>Personal consumption went up 5% for each of the past 2 years, $-wise.<br><br>(1) How much was just due to inflation, and <br>(2) how much of that was borrowed (i.e. inflated) ?<br><br>I think the consumer debts are coming home (pardon pun) to roost.<br>The stimulus will do little to effect the short term economy... most will pay off existing debts... 34% said they'd save... so only 1/5th will spend it and much of that injection will go to foreign countries .... and few to US jobs and bread winners.<br><br>David (OFI)
I haven't the foggiest idea what inflation was the last two years.<br>Let's look it up.<br>Consumer Price Index numbers:<br>All items, 2005 to 2006, 3.2%<br>All items, 2006 to 2007, 2.8 %<br><br>Therefore, over two years, 6%.<br>GDP over two years increased 8.6%.<br>Some math, 14,084 / 12,964 = 1.086393<br><br>Another number that bears watching, the Personal Income and Outlays.<br><br>Personal income increased 6.1 percent in 2007 (that is, from the 2006 annual level to the 2007 annual level), compared with an increase of 6.6 percent in 2006. Personal outlays increased 5.5 percent in 2007, compared with an increase of 5.9 percent in 2006. <br><br>Taking account for the falling dollar, Real personal income increased 3.0 percent in 2007, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent in 2006.<br>Real personal expenditures increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent in 2006.<br><br>The numbers still look good. <br><br>And I repeat, the stock market is a poor judge of the economy. For example, just look at Apple's stock and its recent roller coaster slide.<br><br><br><br><br><br>
Hey Ron, I don't mean to nitpick too much and it doesn't make a huge difference, but inflation is compounded so you cannot just add the percentages.<br><br>These numbers don't mean all that much though if job creation is poor. In fact, real inflation-adjusted wages have not budged much for a long long time and it is going to take a lot of work to get most of our wage increases from getting gobbled up in energy and health care costs.<br><br>Our economy is hamstrung by a lot of issues that need to be moderated before we can say that things are good.<br><br>-- Cee Bee Double-U
I've haven't been posting really good numbers, and I'm not suggesting that the economy is getting much better. Expenses have been rising with Income almost neck to neck. But likewise, the numbers don't suggest we're in a recession either. I would agree the economy pretty much stagnate. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing, considering the war in Iraq.<br><br>But I will repeat once again, which was the major thrust of my replies, the stock market is a poor judge of the state of the economy.<br><br><br><br><br><br><br>
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