Yes, seems optomistic in face of the math (via National Review blog):<br><blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr><p>Let's do the math:<br><br>Bush has won Ohio by about 136,000 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. Kerry wants to wait until the provisional ballots and absentees are counted. Here is what Kerry will have to win out of these remaining ballots to make up the 136,000 vote deficit.<br><br>The way to figure it out is:<br><br>(A) Take the number of valid provisional ballots (i.e., not the total number but the total number reduced by the number of those determined to be invalid) and add it to the number of valid absentee ballots.<br><br>(B) Subtract 136,000 from (A).<br><br>(C) Divide (B) by 2.<br><br>(D) Subtract (C) from (A). This is the number of votes Kerry needs to win.<br><br>(E) Divide (D) by (A) and multiply by 100. This is the percentage of votes Kerry needs to win.<br><br>So if these are the numbers of valid provisional and absentee ballots, the numbers in parentheses following them are the percentages of the vote Kerry needs to win Ohio:<br><br>150,000 (95.3%)<br>175,000 (88.9%)<br>200,000 (83.0%)<br>225,000 (79.8%)<br>250,000 (77.2%)<p><hr></blockquote><p>Doesn't seem like he could get 77.2 percent of even the most optimistic projection on the number of current "un-counted" ballots.<br><br><br>It's all over but the cryin'
i tend to trust your numbers more, but i guess i can understand not conceding if this infromation from the front page of dailykos is correct (and, i doubt it):<blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr><p>Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221<br><br>If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.<br><br>And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.<br><br>If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.<br><br>If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.<br><br>If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.<br><br>Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.<p><hr></blockquote><p><br>--<br>one of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -Plato
Hey, I'm not begrudging Kerry to look at the number and ask for full counts and recounts up the wazoo. I want the winner to win.<br><br>I just don't want this to sprial down the "vote fraud" hole that Florida went into. I just don't want to hear over the next couple of week "Well, Kerry would have won Ohio if it hadn't been for republican vote irregularities." (Unless of course there are PROVABLE, not anicdotal, problems.)<br><br>It's all over but the cryin'
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