Until about 1 month ago I was sure Bush would be re-elected. But, now I think I'm changing my prediction. These "polls" are nonsense.<br><br>-The main reason is that there is a huge surge in voter registration and it may be the biggest voter turnout since 1968. Most of these new voters are not efficiently polled, and since the majority of them are young, they are likely to go more toward Kerry.<br><br>-Independents (including those listed as "unsure" in the polls) traditionally break 2:1 in favor of the challenger. This might not be the case this year, though, since we are at war. Apparently when a president starts a war for the wrong reasons and botches the job, people think that they would still be better off letting him "finish" the job. Whatever.<br><br>-Kerry is behind in most of the national polls, but ahead in most of the battleground state polls. This is probably more important, since we know the popular vote does not elect the president. Furthermore, Bush was leading in national polls in 2000 by more than he is now, and he still lost the popular vote.<br><br>-These are mostly telephone polls, and a lot has changed over the years regarding the telephone (anti-phone spam legislation, huge shift toward mobiles, etc.). John Zogby was on the Daily Show the other night and he said that 9 out of 10 phone calls are not answered or will not respond. So, is this really a representation of the population? Are those that are more likely to respond to polls leaning democrat or republican? Who would the cell-phone-only crowd vote for? FWIW, John Zogby predicted Kerry would win.<br><br><br>Even with all that garbage above I still don't feel very confident about my prediction; I don't think anyone will be shocked if it goes one way or the other. But, I sure hope one of them wins easily. NO ONE wants the ugly litigation like last time, right?<br><br>
I mentioned this earlier in the year. The legend surrounding the Redskins' last home game before Election Day is simplicity itself: If they win, the White House incumbent will remain president. If they lose, the incumbent loses. more here<br><br>
I'm hoping We The People will win this one — regardless of which candidate is ultimately elected.<br><br>Are either of them up to their hype? One has to prove he can do better by us than he has so far. The other has to prove he can do the job, period.<br><br>
<blockquote><font size=1>In reply to:</font><hr><p>NO ONE wants the ugly litigation like last time, right?<p><hr></blockquote><p><embed src="http://homepage.mac.com/drjohn/.Music/1millionlawyer.mp3" width=320 height=25 controller=true autoplay=false><br><br>
_________________________ Old farts, the hidden caulk of civilization. Jim Atkinson
Well, it wasn't Willie who said it, so to speak, no more than Cain's "I'm not my brother's keeper" is "what the Bible says." The real speaker is Dick the Butcher, at the height of absurdity during Cade's rebellion. Not exactly a perspective that Shakespeare himself might subscribe to, I think.<br><br>
_________________________ MACTECHubi dolor ibi digitus
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