i predicted kerry would win with 310 of the electoral votes. electoral-vote.com now is showing their regular electoral map, which kerry is winning handily, but they also have a new prediction map and the criteria for the prediction is explained. <a href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/">link here</a><br><br>the biggie in his equation is that, "The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)." this based on studies from 1970 - 2000 and also a larger study going back even more. i had read something about this some time ago, so that was largely the catalyst for my prediction. electoral-vote.com has kerry winning with 311. he's pretty close to my expert opinion. <br><br><br>--<br>one of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -Plato
Loc: Alpharetta, GA
One thing their rationale doesn't seem to take into account is new voter registration, which I understand is up dramatically. These new voters aren't being polled so they could make a dramatic swing either way on election day. <br><br>
Well I hear that Mary Poppins is a registered democrat<br><br>
_________________________ I used to think it was terrible that life was unfair. Then I thought what if life were fair and all of the terrible things that happen came because we really deserved them? Now I take comfort in the general unfairness and hostility of the universe.
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